Artificial intelligence (AI) has transcended its previous abstract status and has emerged as a versatile technology with widespread applications across various domains, including healthcare, finance, advertising, and numerous others. The recent surge of interest in ChatGPT, a program specifically designed to enhance language models for conversational purposes, has intensified discussions surrounding the economic and societal implications of AI.
Figure 1: Time to reach 1 million users for various digital applications
The magic behind the machine
The objective of artificial intelligence (AI) is to enhance the intelligence and utility of machines, resulting in improved efficiency and productivity. By employing AI judiciously, companies can gain a competitive advantage, gain deeper insights into customer needs, and ultimately experience increased revenues or reduced costs. While the rationale behind investing in AI is primarily based on structural considerations, the evolution of AI will be shaped by two key factors:
- The availability of extensive data: The abundance of data plays a crucial role in the development and advancement of AI. As data volumes continue to grow significantly in the coming decades, the speed and accuracy of AI systems are expected to improve correspondingly.
- Increasing computing power: The progress in computing power is another pivotal factor influencing the evolution of AI. Continued advancements in computational capabilities will contribute to the refinement and effectiveness of AI technologies.
However, concerns regarding data collection, security, and privacy have emerged, leading to a public debate surrounding these issues. Despite the optimistic outlook for the growth of computing power and data availability, the unresolved concerns related to data handling have added complexity to the AI landscape.
There are three clusters of companies that are expected to reap the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI):
1. Large technology companies: These companies are poised to be the primary beneficiaries of the widespread adoption of AI. They possess extensive expertise in AI, accumulated through years of substantial investment. As a result, they are well-positioned to introduce and market AI-enhanced products and services. Furthermore, these companies have significant financial resources, enabling them to swiftly invest and allocate capital in high-growth areas, such as AI, which constitutes a pivotal component of their future growth strategies.
2. Software companies, cloud services, data analytics, and cybersecurity firms: The AI software market is projected to reach USD 192 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, according to IDC. Despite concerns about inflation and an impending economic downturn, spending on AI and automation technologies and solutions continues to surge, as stated by Ritu Jyoti, Vice President at IDC. Software companies, providers of cloud services, and firms specializing in data analytics and cybersecurity are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth.
3. Semiconductors: The expansion of cloud computing and AI is generating substantial demand for semiconductors, including computing units, memory, and other components specifically designed for AI applications. Industry estimates project that sales of AI-specific chips will reach USD 77 billion by 2025, a significant increase from USD 11.2 billion in 2021. This heightened demand will greatly benefit chipmakers and companies involved in the production of semiconductor equipment.
What are the risks?
AI presents several risks that need to be carefully considered. These risks encompass both sustainability concerns related to the job market and the environment, as well as reputational and regulatory risks associated with misinformation and the potentially harmful use of AI. It is crucial to acknowledge that AI and natural-language models are susceptible to errors, leading to the generation of misinformation. Moreover, they may also raise issues regarding data privacy, security, and intellectual property rights.
Additionally, AI introduces the risk of a significant rise in cyber attacks due to the increased ease of creating viruses, scams, and manipulating data. The accessibility of generative AI, such as ChatGPT, lowers the barriers for entry for cybercriminals. According to a survey conducted by research firm Baker McKenzie, CEOs identify cybersecurity as the most significant risk associated with the widespread adoption of AI.
Figure 2: 69% of US executives believe the biggest risk from AI is cyber attacks
The potential for automation through AI is substantial, with the capacity to replace repetitive and easily automatable tasks. This could result in job losses and a restructuring of the workforce to adapt to new roles. Numerous studies have attempted to quantify the global impact, estimating the number of jobs at risk.
The OECD suggests that 14% of jobs worldwide are susceptible to automation, while PwC and Goldman Sachs estimate the figure to be around 326 million and 300 million jobs, respectively. According to a McKinsey study, it is the activities performed within jobs that are more likely to be automated, indicating that existing technologies can already automate approximately 45% of activities in the US, equivalent to USD 2 trillion in wages.
The extent of job automation will depend on two key factors: the amount of time spent on repetitive tasks within an activity and the level of training and qualifications required for the task. Sectors such as transportation, logistics, manufacturing, retail sales, fast-food kitchen staff, secretarial roles, and counter staff are among those identified by the OECD as being at higher risk of job automation.
Which are the opportunities for investors?
Based on the analysis conducted by consultancy firm IDC, the artificial intelligence (AI) market has the potential to reach a value of up to USD 900 billion by the year 2026. This estimation encompasses various segments of the AI market, including hardware, software, and services. If realized, this projection would represent significant growth, as it would be twice the value recorded in 2022.
Figure 3: Estimated global AI market between 2020 and 2026e, in billion dollars
The significance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) became evident in the recent quarterly results of 1Q23, where references to AI during post-earnings conferences in the United States experienced a notable increase of 85% compared to the previous year. This substantial growth highlights the considerable interest and momentum surrounding AI within the private sector.
Bill Gates, a notable figure in the field, emphasized that entire industries will undergo a reorientation process centered around AI. He further stated that companies will distinguish themselves based on their ability to effectively leverage AI and derive maximum benefits from its utilization.
Figure 4: Number of acquisitions of AI companies by major technology groups, between 2019 and 2021
Numerous enterprises are making substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI) with the aim of enhancing their operational processes, services, and products. This is motivated by the transformative potential of AI, which can yield significant competitive advantages across various sectors. Prominent technology conglomerates, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and IBM, are channeling billions of dollars toward AI research and development.
For instance, Google acquired DeepMind, an AI startup, in 2014 for a substantial sum of $600 million. DeepMind notably achieved breakthroughs in AI by creating the first model capable of defeating a world champion in the game of Go, as well as the AlphaFold model, which accurately predicts protein structures.
Microsoft, on the other hand, has made a strategic investment of over $10 billion in OpenAI, the developer of the generative AI model known as ChatGPT. Microsoft is actively integrating AI capabilities into its range of products and services.